Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
